Economic forecast from Beslan Barateliya: if the situation stabilizes, then the economy will activate in the second half of the year

24.06.2020 17:12
Economic forecast from Beslan Barateliya: if the situation stabilizes, then the economy will activate in the second half of the year
Chairman of the National Bank of Abkhazia gave a press conference on Abkhaz television.

Sukhum. June 24. Apsnypress. Press center of the Abkhaz State Television and Radio Company held a press conference of Chairman of the National Bank of Abkhazia Beslan Barateliya.

At the request of journalists, Baratheliya gave a brief assessment of the current economic situation in the country: “We are all witnesses of unusual events that have swept not only Abkhazia, but the whole world. And such an economy as Abkhazian, as a result of these events, turned out to be the most vulnerable, since it is export-oriented and highly dependent on export-import operations, and the country is not an issuer of national currency. All these conditions have a negative effect on our economy. Recently, we summed up the inflow and outflow of money to and from Abkhazia (receipt of funds in the banking system, money transfers and other operations) for 5 months of 2020. It turned out that Abkhazia received more than 9 billion rubles. Over the same period, 11 billion rubles were spent from Abkhazia. Thus, the balance of cash flow and outflow became negative, and the money supply in the country decreased by 2 billion rubles. Of course, this is a huge amount for our small economy. The decrease in  money supply caused a decrease in entrepreneurial activity, a reduction in trade revenue, budget revenues, and a shortage of money in the economy. We very much hope that the restrictive measures
caused by the COVID-19 pandemic will be lifted and the economy will recover quickly. It is still difficult to forecast, but if the situation stabilizes, then all this activity can be intensified in the second half of the year. ”
Answering the journalist’s question about how the banks of Abkhazia survived the crisis caused by the pandemic, Barateliya noted: “The banking sector is also a type of business, but in the area of ​​banking services. Therefore, banks, like other enterprises, experience the same difficulties. It doesn’t happen that all sectors of the economy suffer, and the banking sector works steadily. In addition, restrictive measures at the border and the announcement of quarantine measures led to panic among the population, we observed an unprecedented surge in cash withdrawal from accounts. In March 2020 alone, the National Bank secured cash and issued through ATMs about 1 billion 300 million rubles. In April, this wave continued, although volumes fell to 1 billion 100 million rubles. But in general, the banking system of Abkhazia has withstood. ”

Chairman of the National Bank denied rumors about unauthorized withdrawals from pensioners' accounts: “It is generally believed in society that all pensioners took expensive loans that are written off from their pensions. According to the results of 5 months of the salary and pension lending program, as of June 1, only 2% of pensioners took loans, 98% of pensioners did not have loans. In some cases, pensioners are guarantors of borrowers, but even in this case, only 3% of pensioners are guarantors. According to statistics, in only 0.6% of cases, the borrower does not pay the loan on time, and the funds are deducted from the pension of the surety pensioner. Perhaps the rumor about the magnitude of this problem is caused by the fact that many pensioners, in order to evade the requests of borrowers to act as guarantors, say that they are already guarantors or borrowers? This created similar rumors in society. ”
Also, Barateliya denied the rumor that the National Bank issued large loans to state companies that were not repaid: “The Bank of Abkhazia does not lend to legal entities, but only commercial banks. The National Bank issued loans to other commercial banks that issued refinancing loans to state-owned companies. But these loans were repaid on time, unless the banking license was revoked from such banks as Gagra Bank, Fininvest Bank, Invest Bank, Leon Bank. ”

In response to question on salary of Chairman of the Bank of Abkhazia, Barateliya told that his salary is 85 thousand rubles. However, he noted that the Bank is not financed from the state budget, but exists on its own funds received from commercial activities.

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